The First Project

This is where
the first Loop
closes.

The Levante Loop can close at multiple sites on the Atlantic corridor. Dakhla scores highest on every structural criterion: wind resource, cooling water temperature, shipping geometry, and regulatory pathway. It is not the default choice. It is the result of eliminating the alternatives.

See the full model
23°N 15°W · Dakhla Atlantic SEZ · Morocco
47%
Wind capacity factor (P50)Saharan interior: 35–40%. Red Sea coast: 32–38%.
17°C
Atlantic seawater coolingRed Sea equivalent: 32–35°C. Material CAPEX advantage on electrolyzer thermal management.
4 d
Rotterdam by Atlantic directZero chokepoint exposure. No Suez. No Bab-el-Mandeb.
$1.6B
Moroccan state port investmentDakhla Atlantic Port, approximately 70% complete.
Site Rationale

Why Dakhla
specifically.

Atlantic trade wind resource

The Alizé trades run consistently at Dakhla, producing a P50 wind capacity factor of 47%. This is the single most important driver of hydrogen cost at scale. Sites in the Saharan interior or on the Red Sea coast deliver 8–15 percentage points less, which at Phase 1 electrolyzer size translates to hundreds of millions in additional generation CAPEX or lower annual output.

47% CF vs 32–40% at comparable MENA sites
Seawater cooling temperature

Atlantic coastal water arrives at 17–22°C year-round. PEM electrolyzer stacks operate more efficiently at lower inlet temperatures and require less cooling infrastructure. Red Sea sites face 32–35°C seawater, which directly increases thermal management CAPEX and the parasitic cooling load that reduces net hydrogen output.

15°C delta vs Red Sea — material at 1,030 MW electrolyzer scale
Shipping geometry

Dakhla sits on the Atlantic coast at 23°N. Rotterdam is 4 days by direct Atlantic routing with no chokepoint transits. Red Sea and Gulf sites require Suez Canal passage. Oman and East African sites involve either Suez or the Cape route. The Atlantic routing is not just faster — it removes a category of supply chain risk entirely.

Zero chokepoint exposure on the EU supply route
CO₂ supply logistics

The Levante Loop depends on LCO₂ vessels running southbound from European ports. Dakhla is on the same Atlantic lane as the returning fuel vessels. A ship delivering CO₂ southbound loads methanol northbound. No repositioning, no ballast voyage. This is the geometry that makes the circular supply chain commercially coherent.

Same vessel, same lane — CO₂ in, methanol out
Regulatory and political alignment

Morocco holds an Association Agreement with the EU and is integrated into the EU's RFNBO certification framework under the Morocco-EU Green Deal. The RFNBO pathway for biogenic CO₂ methanol produced in Morocco and consumed in the EU is legally clear. That is not true of all competing jurisdictions.

RFNBO certification pathway confirmed
The site selection principle

Geography is a second-order effect. The binding constraint on project bankability is the EBITDA-to-CAPEX ratio — and the largest lever on that ratio is wind capacity factor, not location per se.

A comparison across six candidate sites (Dakhla, Mauritania, Namibia, Oman, Chile, Western Australia) showed that resource quality differences between prime sites are small relative to the capital structure problem. Dakhla ranks first because it combines the highest Atlantic wind resource with the CO₂ logistics advantage that no other site replicates.

The model is not locked to Dakhla. A second Loop at a site meeting the same criteria — Atlantic wind above 44% CF, seawater cooling below 24°C, RFNBO-aligned regulatory framework — would follow the same structure.

Project Scale

Three phases.
One site.

Phase 1 establishes the Loop at commercial scale and validates the circular supply chain. Phases 2 and 3 expand installed capacity on the same site footprint using the same infrastructure base.

Phase Methanol Ammonia H₂ (gross) Installed power CAPEX (base) Status
Phase 1
Development		 500,000 T/yr 150,000 T/yr 154,000 T/yr 3,090 MW
1,623 wind · 1,467 solar		 ~$7.3B base
$10.5B conservative		 Active
Phase 2
Planned		 +500,000 T/yr +150,000 T/yr +154,000 T/yr +3,090 MW ~$5.8B
brownfield uplift		 Post Phase 1 FID
Phase 3
Concept		 +250,000 T/yr +75,000 T/yr +77,000 T/yr +1,545 MW ~$3.0B Long-term

Phase 1 basis: 65/35 wind/solar generation mix. 20-year debt tenor. 92% plant utilisation. 1,030 MW PEM electrolyzer (11 × 100 MW modules). Pre-FEED accuracy ±25%.

Capital Structure

The binding constraint
is not operations.

EBITDA margins across all three scenarios are healthy — 22% to 62%. The project's challenge is capital structure, not operating economics. Concessional DFI financing is not an enhancement. It is a structural requirement.

Scenario CAPEX EBITDA Debt structure Min DSCR Key unlock
Conservative
$900/T MeOH · CF 40% · CAPEX +30%		 $10.5B $273M · 26% 14% senior · 10% DFI · 15% grant · 61% equity 1.22x +$250/T offtake floor (H2Global / EU Hydrogen Bank) + 15% construction grant
Base
$1,100/T MeOH · CF 45% · base CAPEX		 $7.3B $400M · 51% 30% senior · 20% DFI · 10% grant · 40% equity 1.22x Concessional stack (EIB / AfDB / KfW). 2-year ramp-up grace period.
Upside
$1,250/T MeOH · CF 50% · CAPEX –10%		 $5.9B $536M · 62% 43% senior · 29% DFI · 5% grant · 23% equity 1.40x Standard project finance gearing achievable at 72% debt without subsidy.

All scenarios: 500/150 kT output, 20-year tenor, 1.20x DSCR lender floor. The $200/T biogenic certificate premium is the most fragile revenue assumption and is stress-tested separately.

Shipping Geometry

The Atlantic
advantage.

The same routing logic that makes Dakhla a strong production site makes it a strong export site. Atlantic direct means no canal fees, no congestion risk, and no chokepoint exposure on the EU supply route.

4 d
Dakhla to Rotterdam, Atlantic direct
Zero
Chokepoints on the export route
Same
Vessel: CO₂ south, methanol north