The Chain / Node 02 of 8 / Conversion, production
Node 02 · The Origin

Conversion, making the molecule.

Hydrogen and biogenic CO₂ combined into green ammonia and methanol. The biogenic premium on the methanol fraction is a structural financing dependency, not an upside assumption.

Node status
Modelled
Operational economics modelled in Sim 1 and Sim 2. Figures below are screening-stage.
Input
Power + water + CO₂126 kT/yr hydrogen and 708 kT/yr CO₂ (460 kT biogenic) at the origin
Output
Tonnes of fuel500 kT/yr methanol and 150 kT/yr ammonia, provenance-tagged for RFNBO
What it is

Where power becomes a tradeable fuel.

This node takes hydrogen and combines it into molecules that can be stored and shipped. Two parallel routes run from the same hydrogen stream: ammonia synthesis, which needs nitrogen from an air separation unit, and methanol synthesis, which needs carbon, supplied here as biogenic CO₂. The output is 500 kT/yr of methanol and 150 kT/yr of ammonia, each carrying the certification that lets it sell as a renewable fuel.

The carbon source is what makes the methanol valuable. Because the CO₂ is biogenic, the methanol qualifies for the RFNBO certificate premium, and that premium is not a bonus on top of a viable project, it is the thing that makes the project finance work. A conversion developer taking this node is taking both the synthesis technology and the carbon-sourcing logic that the premium depends on.

Inputs & assumptions

What drives the node.

ParameterValueBasis
Hydrogen feed126 kT/yrFrom the generation node (Sim 1) M
CO₂ feed708 kT/yrIncl. process loss; 460 kT biogenic P
Biogenic fraction65 %Drives the RFNBO-eligible methanol share P
Methanol price$1,100/tBase-case screening price E
RFNBO premium$130/tOn the biogenic methanol fraction only P
Ammonia price$750/tBase-case screening price E
CO₂ cost$88/tDelivered biogenic CO₂ feedstock P
MMeasured
PProject-grade
EEstimate
DDesign
Outputs & economics

What the node produces.

650 kT
Fuel output/yr
$705M
Revenue/yr
$825M
Node CAPEX
65%
RFNBO-eligible
Revenue / cost lineBasisAnnual
Methanol revenue500 kT + biogenic premium$592M
Ammonia revenue150 kT × $750/t$113M
CO₂ feedstock708 kT × $88/t($62M)
Methanol plant CAPEX500 kT × $1.20M/kt$600M
Ammonia + ASU CAPEX150 kT × $1.50M/kt$225M
Node finding

The premium is structural, not upside.

It is tempting to treat the RFNBO premium as the cherry on top of a project that works without it. The numbers say the opposite. The premium on the biogenic methanol fraction contributes roughly $42M/yr of revenue. Strip it out, and that margin disappears, dropping the corridor below its lender DSCR floor.

What this means

The biogenic CO₂ premium is a structural financing dependency, not an optimistic assumption. This reframes how the node must be presented to a credit committee: the carbon-sourcing arrangement is not a commercial nicety, it is part of the capital structure. A conversion developer taking this node inherits that dependency, and the binding question is the security of the biogenic CO₂ supply and its certification, not the synthesis technology, which is mature.

Provenance & sources

Where the numbers come from.

Synthesis CAPEX ($1.20M/kt methanol, $1.50M/kt ammonia): bottom-up plant cost coefficients from the technical documentation, the ammonia figure including the air separation unit.

Biogenic fraction (65%): the share of methanol carbon from biogenic CO₂, which determines RFNBO eligibility and therefore the premium-bearing volume.

Prices ($1,100/t methanol, $750/t ammonia, $130/t premium): base-case screening prices. The premium applies only to the biogenic methanol fraction, not the full output.

Operational economics trace to Sim 2; CAPEX to Sim 3. Screening-stage, modelled, not quotes.

Independence

How this node stands alone.

The node takes hydrogen and carbon in, finished fuel out. It connects to a hydrogen source upstream and a storage-and-shipping chain downstream, and it can be sited wherever both feedstocks meet.

Connects upstream to
A hydrogen + CO₂ source
Takes hydrogen from electrolysis and biogenic CO₂ from a captured source. The hydrogen can come from this corridor or be bought in; what the node needs is a secure carbon supply with certification.
Connects downstream to
Origin storage + transport
Delivers finished tonnes to tankage and shipping. A conversion-only operator can sell ammonia and methanol at the factory gate, leaving transport and delivery to others.
Go deeper

The full model.

Simulator available
Operations P&L · Sim 2
Adjust prices, the biogenic fraction, feedstock costs and the premium, and watch the operating margin recompute. Sim 1 covers the upstream mass balance; Sim 3 the full capital structure.
Open the simulator
Simulator available
Project Finance · Sim 3
The whole chain financed. Move methanol price and the biogenic certificate and watch the modelled coverage clear or fail the lender floor. Capital structure, CAPEX and tenor are held at the Dakhla screening basis in this public view.
Open the simulator